The Practical Approach
*A Practical Example
If there is an area in your school where a fairly large, but
unknown, number of pupils go each day (the playground at break
for example), you can try to estimate the number of pupils in
your school using the capture-recapture method.
One day you will go to the area and 'mark' some pupils.
On the next day a different person will go to the same area
and interview some pupils to find who was marked' on the first
day.
- Discuss the following points:
- How, are you going to mark pupils?
- How, will you choose pupils to mark?
- How many pupils will you mark?
- How many pupils will you interview on the second day?
- What will you ask them?
- What other practical difficulties will.vou have to
solve?
Have a final discussion with your teacher.
- Do the experiment, record your results and work
out your estimates.
- What problems did you find with this experiment?
Practical Problems
When we were looking at how many fish there were in a pond in
Section B, we made some assumptions.
We assumed that:
The same fish were in the pond when we took the capture sample
and recapture sample.
The marked fish mixed completely with the other fish between
the two samples.
Each individual fish was equally likely to be caught at the
recapture stage.
- Can you think of any other assumptions we have
made?
Look at the questions in the introduction about counting
whales, cod and herring and the practical example in D1. For any
one of these, answer questions h to d.
- How are these assumptions likely to be wrong?
- How do you think this will affect the estimates?
- Can you think of any other problems which would
make the capture-recapture method difficult to carry out?
- Can you think of any other problems the
capture-recapture method could solve?
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